Home Política Torpedo a la línea de flotación del IPCC

Torpedo a la línea de flotación del IPCC

escrito por Luis I. Gómez 25 febrero, 2009

El Director-Fundador del  International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, Shunichi Akasofu, acaba de emitir junto con un grupo de renombrados científicos japoneses un demoledor informe sobre Cambio Climático.

No sólo califican a la ciencia climática tal y como se lleva hoy de  “astrología antigua”, dicen más cosas (h/t Anthony Watts, ver completo aquí):

Kanya Kusano is Program Director and Group Leader for the Earth Simulator at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology (JAMSTEC). He focuses on the immaturity of simulation work cited in support of the theory of anthropogenic climate change. Using undiplomatic language, Kusano compares them to ancient astrology. After listing many faults, and the IPCC’s own conclusion that natural causes of climate are poorly understood, Kusano concludes:

“[The IPCC’s] conclusion that from now on atmospheric temperatures are likely to show a continuous, monotonous increase, should be perceived as an unprovable hypothesis“, he writes.

Shunichi Akasofu, head of the International Arctic Research Center in Alaska, has expressed criticism of the theory before. Akasofu uses historical data to challenge the claim that very recent temperatures represent an anomaly:

“We should be cautious, IPCC’s theory that atmospheric temperature has risen since 2000 in correspondence with CO2 is nothing but a hypothesis”.

Akasofu calls the post-2000 warming trend hypothetical. His harshest words are reserved for advocates who give conjecture the authority of fact.

“Before anyone noticed, this hypothesis has been substituted for truth… The opinion that great disaster will really happen must be broken.”


To summarize the discussion so far, compared to accurately predicting solar eclipses by celestial mechanics theoretical models, climate models are still in the phase of reliance on trial and error experiential models. There are still no successful precedents. The significance of this is that climate change theory is still dominated by anthropogenic greenhouse gas causation; the IPCC 4th Evaluation Report’s conclusion that from now on atmospheric temperatures are likely to continuously, monotonously increase, should be perceived as an unprovable hypothesis; it will be necessary investigate further and to evaluate future predictions as subject to natural variability.

La cosa no tendría mayor importancia (un grupito de negacionistas más o menos a quién le importa!) si no se tratase del texto oficial del informe que la Japan Society of Energy and Resources presentará al Gobierno japonés y determinará las políticas de ese país en asuntos de “cambio climático”