A menos contaminación atmosférica, más calor

No, si al final resultará que los verdes son los verdaderos culpables del Calentamiento Global.

Ahora en serio, según el estudio que acaba de publicar C. Ruckstuhl (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich), la disminución en la concentración de aerosoles (reducción de la polución atmosférica) sobre los cielos de Europa ha provocado un aumento de la temperatura media de un grado centígrado (1° C) desde 1980 hasta hoy. Eso es más que lo que se atribuye al Calentamiento Global durante el mismo período. Hay más:

The rapid temperature increase of 1°C over mainland Europe since 1980 is considerably larger than the temperature rise expected from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases. Here we present aerosol optical depth measurements from six specific locations and surface irradiance measurements from a large number of radiation sites in Northern Germany and Switzerland. The measurements show a decline in aerosol concentration of up to 60%, which have led to a statistically significant increase of solar irradiance under cloud-free skies since the 1980s. The measurements confirm solar brightening and show that the direct aerosol effect had an approximately five times larger impact on
climate forcing than the indirect aerosol and other cloud effects. The overall aerosol and cloud induced surface climate forcing is ∼+1 W m⁻² dec⁻¹ and has most probably strongly contributed to the recent rapid warming in Europe.

Tela marinera: Ruckstuhl, C., et al. (2008), Aerosol and cloud effects on solar brightening and the recent rapid warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12708, doi:10.1029/2008GL034228. (Vía Ökologismus)

Luego no nos extrañe que la palabra germana “Verschlimmbesserung” (algo así como mejorar para empeorar) se esté poniendo de moda:

Now climate modellers may have another, even more important, source of uncertainty to contend with: atmospheric pollution. Research published last week by a team led by Dr Christian Ruckstuhl of the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science in Switzerland found that dramatic reductions in industrial pollution achieved by European countries has served to drive temperatures up far more rapidly than by global warming alone.

In other words, the clean-up campaigns are another schlimmbesserung, with the airborne gunk actually having a powerful – and beneficial – impact on temperatures, by reflecting the sun’s heat back into space.

Dr Ruckstuhl and his colleagues describe the sheer size of the effect as “very surprising”. But with no current climate models taking it into account, anyone using computer simulations to guide policy decisions can only hope this latest schlimmbesserung doesn’t have consequences best summed up by a short Americanism: “Doh !”.