Nuevo estudio confirma la relevancia de la actividad solar sobre el clima terrestre

Acaba de publicarse en Physics Today (se necesita suscripción) un artículo de Nicola Scafetta, del Duke University Physics Department, donde nos presenta los últimos estudios en torno a la influencia del sol sobre el clima terrestre. Todo parece indicar que al menos las dos terceras partes del calentamiento observado recientemente en el planeta tierra se debe exclusivamente al efecto de la radiación solar, lo cual vuelve a contradecir las “conclusiones” del informe IPCC:

Is climate sensitive to solar variability? Physics Today, March 2008, Nicola Scafetta, Duke University Physics Department, Bruce J. West, US Army Research Office, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina: [...] Thus the average global temperature record presents secular patterns of 22- and 11-year cycles and a short time-scale fluctuation signature (with apparent inverse power-law statistics), both of which appear to be induced by solar dynamics. The same patterns are poorly reproduced by present-day GCMs and are dismissively interpreted as internal variability (noise) of climate. The nonequilibrium thermodynamic models we used suggest that the Sun is influencing climate significantly more than the IPCC report claims. If climate is as sensitive to solar changes as the above phenomenological findings suggest, the current anthropogenic contribution to global warming is significantly overestimated. We estimate that the Sun could account for as much as 69% of the increase in Earth’s average temperature, depending on the TSI reconstruction used. Furthermore, if the Sun does cool off, as some solar forecasts predict will happen over the next few decades, that cooling could stabilize Earth’s climate and avoid the catastrophic consequences predicted in the IPCC report.

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