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Al Gore y los huracanes. Una mentira más

Oct 25th, 2007 | By Luis I. Gómez | Tags: ,

 

al_gore_miente1.jpg

 

Decía Al Gore, el telepredicador favorito de "Z", artista antes llamado Zapatero, que el Calentamiento Global provoca un amento de los huracanes. Pues vamos a verlo:

Accumulated Cyclone Energy Departure from Climatology
(Updated thru October 25, 00Z) **** Current ACE (climo ACE)

Northern Hemisphere = -32% **** 316 (464) (Historic inactivity, 16% of season to go)

North Atlantic = -28% **** 63 (88) (Bill Gray wants 4 more (huh?, Season 91% over)

Eastern Pacific = -60% **** 52.2 (129) (Kiko made like a ghost, Season 95% over)

Western Pacific = -26% **** 179 (241) (Still 21% of yearly activity to go)

2007 PDI Departure from Climatology (thru October 24, 00Z) **** Current PDI (climo PDI)

Northern Hemisphere = -24% **** 29687 (39101)

North Atlantic = -8% **** 6533 (7095) Effects of the Category 5’s

Eastern Pacific = -63% **** 3875 (10510) Includes Kiko

Western Pacific = -18.3% **** 17189 (21037) Includes Kajiki

La reducción es espectacular, como pueden leer. Para quienes trabajan en la redacción de "El País" y tienen más problemas de comprensión lectora, le dejo una gráfica:

 

nh_ace1.jpg

 

Por supuesto, todo especialmente "acientífico", puro invento de gentes ociosas y nada comprometidas con su profesión. Les pueden encontrar en el Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University.

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  1. framling October 26th, 2007 0:17 :

    ¿Pero cómo se atreve a negar lo dicho por el científico que formará al ejército verde de Gore en España?. NEGACIONISTA, que es usted un NEGACIONISTA ENEMIGO DE LA CIENCIA. Que tenga buenas noches.

  2. Luis I. Gómez October 26th, 2007 7:41 :

    Se te olvido decir lo de “facha pepero!” :P
    framlng, bueno que a alguien le quede sentido del humor :)

  3. Al Gore y los huracanes. Una mentira ms - Barcelona Liberal: actualidad catalana en clave liberal October 26th, 2007 10:18 :

    [...]   [...]

  4. Manin October 26th, 2007 12:43 :

    http://www.rebelion.org/noticia.php?id=19999

  5. Luis I. Gómez October 26th, 2007 13:08 :

    Y no es mas sensato esto otro?:

    But can science tell us whether Katrina’s destructiveness was related to global warming? Not directly: science, as a method, is not good at assigning causation for uncontrolled events, and no single weather event can be linked directly to a long-term driver, such as global warming. This inability to draw a definite conclusion, however, in no sense justifies the conclusion that global warming did not influence Katrina.

    Lo cierto es que no lo sabemos. y ahí está el quiz de la cuestión, Manin

  6. Manin October 27th, 2007 17:51 :

    But do the models produce a reasonable amplitude of internal variability? This is a difficult question to answer because it can’t be easily deduced from the climate record (since there are many forcings, some natural, some anthropogenic) that are potentially obscuring the internal signal. However, over the period when we have good data, we can certainly check whether the models amplitude of variability is in the ball park of the observations. Santer et al did this as well, and find that indeed, there is no reason to think that models as a whole are systematically underestimate the internal component. One of the advantages of the IPCC AR4 data is that with so many models participating (22 models here), there will be a range of results - some models have more variability than observed, others less. A robust conclusion can therefore be drawn if the signals are clear regardless of the magnitude of any one models’ representation of the internal variability. (Santer et al have posted an illuminating Q&A on their study that discusses this point further.)

    This result (and an associated paper by Knutson et al who look in more detail at the GFDL simulations) is particularly notable because among the models they look at at precisely the GFDL and HadCM3 models known to generate the ‘AMO’ in control simulations. Thus even in those models which exhibit oscillatory ‘AMO’ behavior, the observed tropical SST trends can only be explained when anthropogenic forcing is included.http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/09/tropical-ssts-natural-variations-or-global-warming/langswitch_lang/sp

  7. Luis I. Gómez October 27th, 2007 18:16 :

    Claro, y todos los modelos que me pongas. Modelos son.

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